Tesla Likely to Account for Less Than One-Third of New DC Fast Charging Ports in the US in 2025
As with its declining sales share of the US BEV market, Tesla’s share of the newly-opened public fast charging market is also falling. In 2024, for the first time since 2012 (the first year the company opened Supercharger stations), Tesla opened less than 50% of new fast charging ports in the US. At just under 6,000 new ports, Tesla’s percentage of new ports declined to 43.8% in 2024 from 77.9% in 2018.
Between 2012 and 2017 the number of new Tesla Supercharger ports was up and down, but starting in 2018, the company had increased new ports each year until 2024. The small decline in 2024 of just under 300 ports from 2023 can largely be attributed to the Supercharger team layoffs last April.
However, Tesla falling below 50% of new ports opened in 2024 was primarily due to a significant increase in the number of fast charging ports opened by all other charging networks and charge-point operators (CPOs). After two years of basically flat growth, the number of newly opened non-Tesla DCFC ports increased by 108.3% in 2024.
We are still finalizing our forecast for 2025, but are currently estimating that more than 16,000 new DCFC ports will open this year, with Tesla accounting for just under 32% of the total. New non-Tesla ports could reach more than 11,000, a 43% increase from 2024.
We expect that Tesla will again open fewer new charging ports in 2025 due to:
- Slowing sales of Tesla models.
- Possible overall flat or declining EV sales in the US in 2025.
- The significant growth in new fast charger ports from other companies.
- Already having the largest number of fast charging ports in the US, Tesla can increasingly rely on its existing footprint and the growth of other networks.
- Focusing on expanding existing stations, rather than opening new sites.
Contributing to the expected growth in 2025 are aggressive deployment goals by companies including IONNA, EVgo, Mercedes-Benz, bp pulse, Walmart, and a return to growth from Electrify America. In addition, while the NEVI pause could impact the pace of openings, companies including Francis Energy, Pilot, Love’s, Kwik Trip, and others should open more than 1,000 NEVI-funded ports in 2025.
However, the threat of the loss of the federal EV tax credit, the new Canada and Mexico import tariffs, the NEVI pause, and a slowing of the economy could result in several companies slowing expansion plans. We remain pretty bullish, however, as building out the supply of reliable, high-power chargers is critical to increasing consumer confidence that they can drive almost anywhere in the US and find charging stations.
