Can GM Catch Tesla In US EV Sales in 2025?
GM recently held its Investor Day meeting at the Spring Hill, Tennessee factory with a key goal for GM to "share our optimism about 2025." And by all indications, GM and its leadership are once again bullish on its EV future after strongly hinting at a pullback in 2023.
As recently as 2022, GM’s CEO Mary Barra predicted that GM would sell more electric vehicles in the US by the end of 2025 than Tesla. Through Q3 2024, GM has delivered 70,450 EVs in the US, while by our and Troy Teslike’s estimates (Tesla does not report sales or deliveries by model or market) Tesla has delivered approximately 453,093 units in the US. That means that Tesla is currently selling about 6.4 times as many EV as GM is selling in the US.
Is it possible for GM to catch Tesla by the end of 2025? In short, no.
While the total sales volume comes nowhere close to matching Tesla's US sales, GM has now moved passed both Ford and the Hyundai Motor Group for the number two slot of BEV sales in the US. This is progress, but not at all close to Mary's promise of catching Tesla.
Excluding the discontinued (until it returns again) Bolt EV/EUV models, GM now offers seven BEV models for sale in the US, up from three in Q2 of 2023, and by the end of 2024 there will (should) be nine models available (Cadillac VISTIQ and OPTIQ). And with the return of the Bolt in 2025, that would make 10 BEV models.
The Cadillac LYRIQ, and Chevrolet Equinox EV and Blazer EV are showing strong sales and both the Equinox and Blazer EVs are on a path to probably selling as many units in the next 12-18 months as their namesake ICE models.
GM is finally making solid progress with the number of EV models available, styling, range, performance, and overall competitiveness. The one area that is falling short of expectations of course, is the sales volume of GM's Chevrolet and GMC trucks — which is quite low. GM has pretty much exited the car (e.g., sedan) segment and so trucks and SUVs are the bulk of the company’s sales, focus, and brand perception.
And therein lies part of the challenge for GM. Pickup and truck buyers have different needs and preferences than buyers of sedans, crossovers, and SUVs. And sales of BEV pickups and trucks have generally been disappointing so far. Even the Rivian R1T pickup is outsold about 3 to 1 by its bigger and more expensive SUV sister model, then R1S. The one potential exception is the Tesla Cybertruck, but it isn’t a traditional pickup and is being bought by many people who will rarely use it as an actual pickup truck.
But slow adoption of electric pickups is also not a surprise and shouldn’t be to an GM executives in Detroit. GM likely made a serious strategic blunder a few years ago by moving to only BEV and ICE powertrains and ignoring regular hybrids and PHEVs — which in the near term are much more attractive to pick-up buyers and other segments and buyer demographics (especially in the middle of the US).
2025 is going to be an interesting year to monitor for GM, and one fun question to watch is: Will the Equinox EV become a strong seller, and move into third or fourth place in BEV sales after the Tesla Model Y, 3 and Cybertruck? But even with very strong sales of the Equinox and Blazer EVs and return at some point of the Bolt EV/EUV — GM just doesn’t have any models that can match sales of the Tesla Model Y and Model 3.
Once the revised Bolt EV/EUV returns in 2025, GM will have 10 BEV models available in the US — twice as many as Tesla’s five models. But none of GMs models beyond the Equinox, Blazer, and Bolt will have the potential of high-volume sales to match the volume of Tesla.
We congratulate GM for making great progress on the quantity and quality of their EV models, becoming the number two automaker in EV sales volume in the US, and what is looking like very strong demand for the Equinox and Blazer EVs. And we also applaud GM in being one of the first automakers to recognize the importance of public charging in selling EVs, with its investment and partnership with EVgo and Pilot, as well as IONNA, and many other initiatives.
It will likely be many years, however, — if ever — before GM catches Tesla in total EV sales volume in the US. But we excited to see GM starting to close the gap in competitiveness, and making great progress on the sales volume front.
By Loren McDonald - Chief Analyst, Paren
